The Sun has been freaking out for 4 days & many factors are converging to bring an abnormal and freakish amount of rain to the East Atlantic Coast of the United States.
Joaquin is forecast to continue to gather strength just northeast of the Bahamas during the next couple of days before it begins its northward run along the East coast. The system could reach Category 3 strength the difference is Joaquin could impact the US East Coast.
The storm will bring pounding surf, dangerous seas, strong winds, drenching squalls and flash flooding to the central Bahamas. Wind gusts could reach between 75 and 100 mph on some of the islands.
GPM captured Joaquin Tuesday, September 29th at 21:39 UTC (5:39 pm EDT) as the hurricane moved slowly towards the west-southwest about 400 miles east of the northwestern Bahamas. At the time, Joaquin had been battling northerly wind shear, which was impeding the storm’s ability to strengthen. However, compared to earlier in the day, the system was beginning to gain the upper hand as the shear began to relax its grip.
At the time of this data visualization, Joaquin’s low-level center of circulation was located further within the cloud shield, and the rain area was beginning to wrap farther around the center on the eastern side of the storm while showing signs of increased banding and curvature, a sure sign that Joaquin’s circulation was intensifying. GPM shows a large area of very intense rain with rain rates ranging from around 50 to 132 mm/hr (~2 to 5 inches, shown in red and magenta) just to the right of the center.
This is a strong indication that large amounts of heat are being released into the storm’s center, fueling its circulation and providing the means for its intensification. Associated with the area of intense rain is an area of tall convective towers, known as a convective burst, with tops reaching up to 16.3 km (shown in orange).
These towers when located near the storm’s core are a strong indication that the storm is poised to strengthen as they too reveal the release of heat into the storm.
The most likely scenario is for Joaquin to be guided westward this weekend with possible landfall between North Carolina and southern New Jersey on Sunday. Exactly where the system rolls ashore and progresses inland will define the worst conditions in terms of wind and flooding. It is too early to say for sure exactly where Joaquin may move onshore.